sunspot cycles

[pdub]

And they hype their stories like they are earth-shattering revelations. YOU won't believe what WE discovered about THEM, the story @6 & 11 (three days from now).

That's why I like BBC World News on PBS and The Nightly Business Report also on PBS. Seems to be the same stories at the same time as The Wall Street Journal. Must be up-to-date if it's in WSJ, the "business" paper, and probably as accurate as a second-hand telling can get, "according to sources that know the story".

You go Scott! You and I are twin brothers of at least one subject already.

[oldsman496]

We are terribly ignorant. as a species, that is. we haven't been recording our environment acurately for very long. Chinese records for sunspots go back about 1,000 yrs, but they are not terribly accurate that far back - no telescopes! They are also about the only civilization that felt a need to keep accurate records. (and that survived).... so when our current day scientists claim that a trend is happening and going this way or that way... ? well, do they really know for sure with only a few hundred yrs of observations... no they don't.... But - they will certainly speak in a confident manner when presenting thier hypothesis. The sun has been burning now for billions of years and we shouldn't be making predictions of its future activity based on this small amount of info. but its all we got.

One thing that is fairly rock solid is the last 200 yrs of the composition of the atmosphere - that is how much of this element and how much of that element...we can compare these pretty accurately to ice core and geologic deductions to come up with a fairly solid statement that our Carbon Dioxide levels are increasing at a VERY rapid rate (geologically speaking). Based on our current understanding of the way carbon dioxide interplays in our atmosphere, its a pretty sure bet that that increase will contribute to the "greenhouse" effect.
but what has caused it? Cars? The industrial revolution? People exhale it...? 7 billion of us now...Man has burned the entire planet many times over since he discovered fire a long time ago....

The current warm weather this summer has decidedly affected Greenland. The warm dome of air that has been parking itself over that continent has had a profound effect. Sattelite data is showing that the melting of the Greenland ice cap this summer has been about 20 times more than previous summers all the way back to the 30's - they are estimating - . It has melted deep into the interior of the continent, where it usually melts that way only at the edges of the continent.
A recent discovery this year was that there is a canyon under the West Anarctic ice sheet that is a good bit BIGGER than the Grand Canyon. AND it goes all the way to the southern ocean, near south america, allowing warmer ocean water to penetrate deep into the interior of the West Antarctic ice sheet. This discovery completely invalidates all previous estimations of the stability of this truly massive ice sheet.

These two places on earth contain a huge reservoir of fresh water that is sitting on land - not floating in the sea like an ice cube. if our warming climate does cause these two places to melt down, then the coasts of most continents will flood, which is where most people live. The mean elevation of Florida is 7'. If it were to happen very suddenly ( tens of years ) the amount of pollution (from flooded cities) may poison the oceans.

This possible outcome is truly devastating to mankind. and that is why a lot of people in power who read these scientific studies, are pushing so hard to change the way we do things - That's why the CAFE std's are going to go to 54.5 MPG in - - what 2025 i think? -
but we really don't know. The Himilayan glaciers are not exhibitting the same melting as other places. They are actually growing larger in most places....

from looking at that sunspot graph, its easy for me to see the early sixties, the mid seventies, and other correlations to very heavy local snowfall amounts here in Ohio, they correspond to very low sunspot numbers.... So if Old Sol goes really quite and the number of sunspots diminshes for a long time, will it keep the ice from melting?

I dunno, but it sure is fun for me to read about it.... and yeah, i talk too much.

[Thumpin455]

The sun spots are cool here because we are getting auroras constantly. Been out watching them for every big solar storm.

Weather changes all the damn time and its quite complex. I can tell the earth is getting warmer, but I have only anecdotal evidence of it. Its hard to remember what the weather was like anywhere because I have traveled toe world so much for the last 25 years. I remember the big snow storms in 76-77 that left us without power for almost 3 months, snow drifts 30' deep at the end of the driveway on the farm, and now they hardly get any snow at all.

Here in the UP we usually get an average of 300" of snow each winter. 05-07 was much harsher winter than 09-12 have been, we barely got any snow the last two years. In 04 the 4th of July was about 40F, this year we had a string of 80-90F weather in March. Its all over the place but I dont have enough information to say anything definite about it, other than its weird.

When we started measuring temperatures in the 1700s, the earth was in what is called the mini ice age. It snowed in July in new England, they said that year had no summer. A few hundred years before that it was warm for about 200 years, so warm people were able to grow grapes in Greenland, and they settled there to farm. What caused that warming trend? Nobody can say, but its noticeable in the ice cores.

One thing is for sure, we cant keep spewing stuff into the atmosphere and hope the earth can fix it. It will fix it, but it wont be to our benefit as a species and its doubtful we would survive it. Its not about better gas mileage, its more about not using fossil fuels anymore, unless we want it really warm and dirty. Look at pics from any city in the 70s before the EPA mandated cleaner emissions from cars, trucks and industry, and you will see the benefit of it. They look like Beijing does now, dirty with thick air everywhere. Even if it doesnt get warmer, we cant breathe with all that crap in the air. I love my cars, but I like being alive and relatively healthy more. I really like power and torque, so I make fuel that doesnt harm anything, except a few billion yeast that work for me.

No idea if its man made or not, since it has been warmer in the last 2000 years and far colder in the last 400. I do know the air has gotten cleaner since I was a kid and we need to keep it getting better.

I dont mind not having 15' of snow in my driveway, not at all..

[moparmaniac07]

The current warm weather this summer has decidedly affected Greenland. The warm dome of air that has been parking itself over that continent has had a profound effect. Sattelite data is showing that the melting of the Greenland ice cap this summer has been about 20 times more than previous summers all the way back to the 30's - they are estimating - . It has melted deep into the interior of the continent, where it usually melts that way only at the edges of the continent.

The one article I read on that (and now I'm an expert on the topic) said that the levels of ice melt in Greenland are "unprecedented" and happen about every 150 years. So they're not actually unprecedented, but whatever, more media hype.

Though the article was about a sudden "flash melting" and all of it refroze, so maybe I'm an expert on some other incident of Greenland ice melt.

[pdub]

The one article I read on that (and now I'm an expert on the topic) said that the levels of ice melt in Greenland are "unprecedented" and happen about every 150 years. So they're not actually unprecedented, but whatever, more media hype.

Though the article was about a sudden "flash melting" and all of it refroze, so maybe I'm an expert on some other incident of Greenland ice melt.

I think I may have read the same article , or one like it. Where a bunch of stuff melted in a few weeks, instead of a few thousand years. It makes me want to overdraw my bank account, but I'm not sure what I'd spend it on.

Maybe...well, I don't know what I'd spend it on. Something immediate. And impulsive.

[68scott385]

a friggin boat

[pdub]

a friggin boat

My choice would be a car. A car so fast you could get killed in it. Might as well go that way than to get drowned by glacier water?

[moparmaniac07]

I think I may have read the same article , or one like it. Where a bunch of stuff melted in a few weeks, instead of a few thousand years. It makes me want to overdraw my bank account, but I'm not sure what I'd spend it on.

Maybe...well, I don't know what I'd spend it on. Something immediate. And impulsive.

but it froze again, so everything's good

[Deaf Bob]

I think I may have read the same article , or one like it. Where a bunch of stuff melted in a few weeks, instead of a few thousand years. It makes me want to overdraw my bank account, but I'm not sure what I'd spend it on.

Maybe...well, I don't know what I'd spend it on. Something immediate. And impulsive.

BLOWER!



Sorry, i hadta!

[pdub]

BLOWER!



Sorry, i hadta!

Let's see if he death flood is happening in the next few weeks Bob, I don't think it is.

[Deaf Bob]

I know what turbos feel like, and I like them...
I'd like to try a blower just once... Just to say I did..

[pdub]

I know what turbos feel like, and I like them...
I'd like to try a blower just once... Just to say I did..

Buy me one Bob. I think we have time to beat the flood. I'll let you ride, but I'm driving.

[oldsman496]

you do have time to beat the flood.... our kids might not, but we will... hopefully.

i think this is a valid rationalization for purchasing that blower... or 2013 GT500.... whatever floats yur boat.

[Barry Donovan]

Oh man... your talkin' my languange B3M.... this sunspot cycle is a wierd one... just last year the sun was spotless for a very long time. this cycle has actually been delayed for over a year from when it 'should' have been here and it is still a very mild one so far... go to Spaceweather.com and check out the vids. SOHO and the Stereo space observatories are constantly producing awsome info. Old Sol is definatetly acting different than it has been for the last 30 yrs or so... some astronomers are predicting a HUGE increase in spots next yr, and others are predicting a slow down-turn in spots and a return to a featureless sun...




stay tuned and see!

before the net, I did not know to coincide strange with the sun spots. it really is exact.
I lost a natural sense from flying in old planes..and am sad about it. I had native traits being a new englander, some genes from an unwritten north.

anyway,I am no apocalyptic stuff, just the facts of sun and records...that is nasty enough (and pleasant too)
I did see when the spots are at the height, the inner continents roast..maine goes frigid.
maybe sucking at the ocean cold to go inland. like a candle centered on a cake sucks at its sides.

enough to drive a weather man looking at wind currents only, a bit nuts. wind is nothing in a bigger picture.

I was reading lobsters this year, maine has so many the prices dropped everywhere. the critters must be loving the sun they don't see.
stuff like that. deep running facts. a bit of a pun.